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T: 01636 816 466
The Old Vicarage
Station Road, Rolleston
You can always be more efficient
Operational Research is all about using analysis to improve decision making. Dr Angela Moore uses mathematical modeling, statistical analysis, optimisation, sequencing and scheduling techniques to create simple heuristics you can employ to run your operation more efficiently.
In the UK outstanding consumer credit is over £200 billion and default rates are rising. Coupled with this, loss given default (LGD) rates are rising meaning that when a consumer defaults on a loan they are paying back less. This means that if a lender can improve their LGD rate they can save many millions.
Predicting LGD is a crucial factor in improving LGD rates, if you can predict who is more likely to pay back their loan then you can prioritize these debtors focusing on those who are more likely to pay back. You can also sell on those debtors who are less likely to pay back any of their debt. Thus saving time, money and receiving some return on a debt you would otherwise receive nothing from. If you can predict the LGD of the debt you can correctly price it.
We use a new and novel technique for predicting LGD through payment patterns. This is far more flexible than other models because you can not only estimate the final LGD but also the LGD at any given time after default. This is ideal for lenders who wish to prioritise their debtors and assess the effects of employing different collections and write off policies.